AGP Executive Report

Governance & Integrity: UTM leader Dalitso Kabambe has written President Arthur Peter Mutharika raising red flags over alleged corruption, money laundering, human trafficking, public procurement issues and concerns involving cabinet and the judiciary, calling for independent investigation. Elections Watch: Malawi Electoral Commission has appointed Andrew Kamkwalala as acting Chief Elections Officer after Andrew Mpesi’s resignation, tasking stakeholders to support continuity as the post is filled substantively. Power & Business Costs: CSOs say Malawi’s blackouts stem mainly from a real electricity supply deficit of about 100MW, not just failures at EGENCO, after engagements including a visit to Mapanga Diesel Power Plant. Forex & Private Sector: Economists warn RBM’s tighter rules on physical foreign currency holdings may help formal forex liquidity, but incentives and the gap with the parallel market remain major hurdles. Taxes & Liquidity: The World Bank says new tax measures—levies on bank and mobile-money transfers, VAT increases and minimum alternate tax—are raising the cost of doing business and squeezing corporate cash flow amid FX and power constraints. Digital ID & Contracts: Malawi’s Nzika Digital ID rollout continues as a World Bank-financed US$5.085m contract will supply biometric registration kits, while data protection rules are still unfinished. Transport Tech: Malawian entrepreneur Jones Yamikani Chadza plans to launch Pita-GO to digitise transport, improve commuter safety and enable tracked, accountable movement. Trade & Diplomacy: Malawi and Kazakhstan have established diplomatic ties and discussed early trade in wheat, tea, coffee and macadamia nuts.

Elections & Governance: Malawi Electoral Commission has appointed Andrew Kamkwalala as acting Chief Elections Officer, replacing Andrew Mpesi, as MEC moves to fill the substantive post. Business & Tax: The World Bank says new Malawi tax measures are raising the cost of doing business—hitting corporate liquidity alongside forex shortages, unreliable power and weak demand. Energy Crunch: Civil society groups warn Malawi faces an electricity deficit of about 100MW, worsening blackouts during peak hours. Forex Policy Watch: Economists at Ecama say RBM’s tighter rules on physical foreign currency holdings could help formal forex supply, but success depends on incentives and the official–parallel rate gap. Digital Identity: A World Bank-financed contract worth about US$5.085m will supply biometric ID registration kits for Malawi’s Nzika Digital ID Wallet, spotlighting data access and unfinished data protection rules. Trade Facilitation: Malawi Revenue Authority awarded seven new Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) licences to improve compliance and make legitimate trade more predictable. Public Health Funding Gap: UNICEF reports Malawi’s domestic HIV funding jumped to K4.5bn, but still covers only a tiny share of the K600bn–K800bn annual need. Road Works Hit Livelihoods: Lilongwe residents and small businesses say dust and access problems from major road projects are already cutting daily trade.

World Bank & Fiscal Watch: The World Bank says Malawi’s 2026/27 budget is now being executed within approved limits for the first time in over five years, with the primary fiscal deficit falling to 0.4% of GDP, but warns living standards won’t improve fast without tackling inflation, forex distortions, weak supply chains and unreliable power. Power Market Scrutiny: The Bank also backs Parliament Speaker Sameer Suleman’s concerns over Power Market Ltd as the single buyer of electricity, saying the SOE’s financial distress and below-cost tariffs are creating systemic risks across the power value chain. Electricity Crisis: Civil society groups warn Malawi faces a 100MW electricity deficit amid persistent blackouts, pointing to generation losses and maintenance delays. Currency Line in the Sand: Finance Minister Joseph Mwanamvekha rejects any Kwacha devaluation, saying reforms must be sequenced and protect vulnerable people while talks with the IMF and World Bank continue. Energy for Growth: Germany urges Malawi to sustain momentum on productive energy use after the PEW project, linking energy access to enterprise and farm productivity. Business Climate Push: Malawi’s corporates call for predictable tax and labour policies to boost investment and expansion. MEC Leadership & Tensions: MEC appoints Andrew Kamkwalala as Acting Chief Elections Officer, while its staff union raises alarms over relocation to Blantyre and other internal grievances. FISP Rollout: Government launches the 2026/27 Farm Inputs Subsidy Programme, promising timely inputs but not naming suppliers. LPG Forex Demand: The LPG Association asks for forex priority for LPG imports and warns shortages are pushing households back to charcoal and firewood. Education Funding: GPE reaffirms support for Malawi’s education sector with commitments above US$150m. Logistics Deal: CTS Courier signs as Afrochoc’s primary logistics partner for domestic deliveries. Climate & Food Security: El Niño risks and climate justice calls dominate UNGA coverage, with warnings of hunger and extreme weather impacts across the region.

Kwacha & IMF talks: Finance minister Joseph Mwanamvekha says Malawi will not devalue the Kwacha, arguing reforms must be sequenced to protect vulnerable households as the World Bank flags improving fiscal discipline. Private sector pressure: Malawi’s biggest corporates want predictable tax and labour policies, warning that forex shortages and energy constraints are already choking investment. FISP rollout: Government launched the 2026/27 Farm Inputs Subsidy Programme, promising timely access to fertiliser and transport arrangements, but stayed tight-lipped on supplier details. Election body strain: MEC faces internal pressure over its planned relocation to Blantyre and related staff grievances, raising concerns ahead of by-elections. Mining & rare earths: Mining minister Thoko Tembo reiterated the ban on exporting raw minerals, pushing for local processing as Lindian Resources prepares for rare earth exports. Business & livelihoods: CAMA rejects further Kwacha devaluation; a survey also says many workers’ salaries last only days after payday. Sports & economy: Blantyre Marathon targets 300+ runners at Kamuzu Stadium, while netball chiefs question the integrity of Africa Cup qualification changes.

Private Sector vs Policy Bottlenecks: Malawi’s biggest firms say heavy taxes, forex shortages and energy problems are choking investment, as government pushes export-led growth and import substitution. Fiscal Discipline Watch: The World Bank reports Malawi has, for the first time in years, executed the national budget within approved limits, cutting the primary deficit as it launches its Malawi Economic Monitor focused on reforming state-owned enterprises. Forex Crunch Tightens: Reserve Bank of Malawi moves to restrict foreign currency possession and movement after reserves fell to about 2.4 months of import cover, deepening pressure on businesses and households. Kwacha Devaluation Debate: Consumer watchdog CAMA urges the government and IMF negotiators to reject further devaluation, warning it will lift prices of essentials again. Mining Rules and Power Reality: Mining minister Thoko Tembo reiterates a ban on exporting raw minerals without processing, while World Bank warns mining expansion needs reliable electricity—Lindian says grid power access is key for scaling rare earths. Reformed CDF Delays: CSOs warn slow disbursement of the reformed Constituency Development Fund could leave projects unfinished before the rainy season. Sports Business: Football fans face stricter ticketing for the Afcon qualifier as authorities clamp down on counterfeit tickets; netball chiefs also question changes to World Cup qualification after semi-finals were scrapped. Compensation Settled: A nine-year Kanyika Niobium Mine compensation standoff ends as most households receive payments, clearing the way for relocation.

Rare Earths Push: Lindian Resources says it has stockpiled about 125,000 tonnes of ore at Kangankunde, with Stage 1 mining running and processing plant work moving into mechanical installation—targeting first monazite concentrate by end-2026. Mining Policy & Power: World Bank warns Malawi’s mining boom depends on fixing the electricity crisis, while Minister Thoko Tembo reiterates firms must process before exporting. Forex Crackdown: RBM caps physical foreign currency holdings at $1,000 and tightens Malawi kwacha export limits, while travellers and traders face new cash ceilings. Export Drive: ECAMA urges Parliament to boost exports, tighten fiscal discipline and deepen capital markets as inflation eases but growth remains weak. Salary Shock: A survey finds many workers burn through salaries in 3–7 days after payday, pointing to low pay, loans and poor money management. Anti-Corruption Backlash: Campaigners slam prosecutors for discontinuing a bribery case linked to convicted Chinese wildlife trafficker Lin Yunhua, after bail was rejected. Energy Mindset: REIAMA calls for practical action ahead of the National Energy Conference, arguing energy supply cuts across every sector. Education & Skills: Malawi secures 18 Indonesia KNB scholarships, strengthening people-to-people ties. Business Integrity: Malawi Posts Corporation warns of AI-generated fake receipts and waybills targeting MPC Courier customers.

AI & Trust: A Gallup-Microsoft survey shows AI awareness is high globally but use is uneven; Malawi stands out with only 12% aware and about 1% using AI. Infrastructure Reality Check: A new push highlights that “infrastructure” goes beyond roads—covering energy, water, health, schools and digital links that determine whether growth reaches people. Inflation Watch: Malawi’s headline inflation eased to 20.0% in August, but food-led pressure and still-high costs keep businesses cautious. Forex Clampdown: The RBM has gazetted tighter foreign exchange rules, limiting how much cash travellers and traders can carry or export without permission. Health Supply Crisis: CMST says public hospitals are short on essential medicines after forex failures, with availability falling sharply—prompting urgent parliamentary action. Mining & Jobs Pipeline: Malawi launched an energy-transition minerals roadmap aiming for big mining export gains, but warns electricity, regulation, FX and infrastructure must improve. Trade Finance Boost: Afreximbank and ATDC signed a $500m facility to expand intra-African trade by financing the full goods-to-distribution chain. Education Access: Communities in hard-to-reach areas are building schools where learners still sit on stones or under trees, underscoring gaps in public service delivery. Sports & Economy: NBM Women’s Premiership action continues as clubs chase early momentum, reflecting how sport sponsorship and spending remain a business story.

Food Security Shock: Save the Children warns that a “Super” El Niño could push about 8 million children in East and Southern Africa into acute hunger by early 2027, with Malawi among the hardest-hit countries. Mining & Industrial Policy: Malawi launched an Energy Transition Minerals Roadmap to turn mineral potential into investment, jobs and wider economic benefits, with priorities on ESG, skills, infrastructure and mineral revenue management. Trade Finance Boost: Afreximbank and ATDC signed a US$500m Global Credit Facility to expand commodity trading, aggregation, logistics, warehousing and distribution across Africa—aimed at strengthening AfCFTA value chains. Telecom Competition: MACRA says Malawi may soon get a third mobile network operator, a move expected to intensify competition between TNM and Airtel. Health Supply Risk: CDEDI warns of a looming drug storage and payment crisis at CMST, citing US$18m owed to foreign suppliers and persistent medicine stockouts. Governance & Justice: Fresh questions are raised over whether Malawi’s justice system treats politicians and ordinary citizens equally, especially in high-profile bail and case outcomes. Women’s Football Funding: FAM released the first MK10m tranche of participation subvention to each club for the 2026/27 NBM Women’s Premiership. Political Parties Crackdown: The Registrar of Political Parties fined eight “briefcase” parties K3m–K5m for poor compliance, including operating from improper offices and failing to update records.

Drug Supply Alarm: CDEDI has written Parliament’s Health Committee warning of a looming medicine storage and payment crisis at CMST, saying it can’t settle over US$18m owed to foreign suppliers and risks worsening stockouts as Malawi imports about 80% of its medicines. IMF Talks & Fiscal Tests: An IMF mission is back for fresh ECF negotiations until Oct 3, with Malawi’s revenue and grants up sharply in 2026/27 Q1 and the revenue-expenditure gap shrinking—setting the stage for whether fiscal gains hold. Telecom Competition: MACRA says Malawi may soon get a third mobile network “disruptor,” aiming to boost competition against TNM and Airtel. Immigration Passport Bottleneck: Passport printing has been halted for weeks after the Immigration Department ran out of booklets, with issuance prioritised for urgent travel needs—sparking fresh service-delivery fears. Politics & Compliance Crackdown: The Registrar of Political Parties has fined eight non-parliamentary parties K3m–K5m for poor office arrangements and record-keeping, with more inspections expected. Trade Finance Boost: Afreximbank and ATDC signed a US$500m Global Credit Facility to finance procurement, logistics, warehousing and trade corridors across Africa. Education & Inclusion: NBM pledged K4m to LUANAR Alumni Connect, while MHRC pushed a 5-point roadmap to remove barriers facing Deaf and hard-of-hearing Malawians. Sports Business: Sulom reports only a 1.74% rise in Premiership gate revenue, blaming the closure of Kamuzu Stadium.

IMF Talks: Malawi’s Government is facing the “moment of truth” as an IMF team led by Justin Tyson returns for fresh ECF negotiations until October 3, with new fiscal data showing a big first-quarter improvement: revenues and grants up 53.7% to K1.8tn, expenditure down 18% to K1.96tn, and the revenue-expenditure gap shrinking to K163bn. Forex Reality Check: Opposition UTM leader Dalitso Kabambe warns that even if the kwacha looks stable, foreign-currency liquidity is still tight, with banks reportedly capping FX disbursements at $200 per person. Gold Formalisation: EDF and FDH Bank are expanding Malawi’s formal gold-buying network with four new Gold Trading Centres in Karonga, Jenda (Mzimba), Mangochi and Blantyre to pull more gold from informal channels. Trade Finance Boost: Afreximbank and ATDC sign a $500m Global Credit Facility to finance commodity purchases, aggregation and logistics across African trade corridors. Women & Small Business: Soft loans via Muona Foundation are helping women in Nsanje run poultry, vegetables and fish businesses, while Lilongwe communities praise Social Cash Transfers for improving livelihoods. Governance & Delivery: Mchinji District Council warns CDF contractors to stop shoddy work or face contract termination as monitoring is stepped up. Media & Business Climate: Capital FM launches “The State of Affairs,” a new current affairs show aimed at sharper agenda-setting.

Regional Trade Finance: Afreximbank and ATDC have signed a $500m global credit facility to fund the purchase, aggregation, logistics, warehousing and distribution of African goods—aimed at boosting intra-African trade and AfCFTA implementation, with initial operations including Malawi. Macroeconomy & IMF: Malawi’s inflation eased to 20% in August, while an IMF mission has returned for fresh ECF talks with government and the RBM. Forex Reality Check: Opposition UTM leader Dalitso Kabambe warns that “stability” can hide a shortage, pointing to banks capping individual forex disbursements at $200. Parliament & Telecom Oversight: MPs summoned ex-MACRA boss Daud Suleman to explain what authorities knew and when during the Chilima plane search, demanding detailed instructions to mobile network operators. Energy Access: World Bank data shows Malawi’s electricity access at just 15.6% in 2024—one of the worst gaps in Southern Africa. Gold Market Formalisation: EDF and FDH Bank will open four new gold trading centres (Karonga, Mzimba, Mangochi, Blantyre) to expand formal gold purchases. Women’s Football Sponsorship: NBM’s K400m boost is lifting competition in the NBM Women’s Premiership as the 2026/27 season kicks off. Sports Business: SULOM reports first-round gate revenue of K1.083bn in the 2026/27 Premiership, with Mighty Wanderers leading crowd pullers. Public Health: Malawi’s health ministry says medicine theft continues to undermine access, forcing patients to buy from private pharmacies.

Energy & Cost of Living: Gas shortages in Blantyre are pushing households back to charcoal as LPG sellers cite forex constraints, while former President Lazarus Chakwera warns that unreliable power is “robbing” farmers through low crop prices. Power Deal Pressure: Government says it is renegotiating Mozambique electricity terms after the country faces about $5.5m monthly payments for 50MW even when supply is not delivered. Macroeconomy & Finance: The IMF returns for talks on a possible Extended Credit Facility, as Malawi’s banking sector points to easing inflation and interest rates. Tobacco Trade: The Tobacco Commission starts “Know Your Grower” registration in tobacco areas to improve traceability ahead of the 2026/27 season. Governance & Fraud Risks: Malawi’s immigration system is accused of being turned into a marketplace for fake visas and permits, and a separate fraud case involving Shabbir Raidhan raises questions after he reportedly left the country. Business & Identity: Nzika Digital ID Wallet launches alongside removal of ID card expiry dates, reshaping how citizens manage credentials. Human Rights & Security: CHRR demands accountability after abductions and rescue operations, including the case of British national Nusrat Osman. Agribusiness & Debt: Mega farmers have repaid only 21.2% of loans, leaving K55.8bn outstanding.

Macroeconomy & Banking: Bankers Association of Malawi (BAM) says Malawi’s recovery is gaining traction, pointing to inflation easing to 20.0% (from 28.2% in Aug 2025) and interest rates down to 24% (from 26%), after President Arthur Mutharika’s return. Public Finance: Parliament has approved a K10.98 trillion 2026/27 budget, with agriculture and economic recovery at the centre, including K971.3bn for farming and grain reserves. Digital Identity & Payments: Malawi launched the Nzika Digital ID Wallet and removed expiry dates on physical national IDs, aiming to reduce renewal friction as digital credentials expand. Infrastructure & Private Capital: Standard Bank CEO Phillip Madinga urged more infrastructure financing through public-private partnerships, arguing capital exists but needs unlocking. Cross-Border Trade: NBM and Akiba pushed for stronger Malawi–Tanzania links at a Dar es Salaam investment forum, stressing that partnerships must turn into real investments. Governance & Accountability: CHRR demanded answers after recent abductions, saying rescues must be followed by accountability. Security & Police: Eight officers were promoted and rewarded for the rescue of British national Nusrat Osman in Blantyre. Sports: Silver Strikers Ladies began their NBM Women’s Premiership title defence with a 3-1 comeback win; sports administrators were told to stop over-relying on government subventions and start generating revenue.

Digital Identity Reform: Malawi launched the Nzika Digital ID Wallet in Lilongwe and removed National ID expiry dates, aiming to modernise how citizens access and present credentials. Budget & Food Security: Parliament approved the K10.98tn 2026/27 budget, prioritising agriculture and economic recovery, with major funding for food production and grain reserves. Banking & Forex Pressure: Bankers met President Mutharika on creating a better business environment, while opposition leader Dalitso Kabambe questioned recovery claims amid forex and inflation concerns. Tax Push After Donor Retreat: Malawi’s tax authority is being urged to fill the funding gap left by donors, with compliance deadlines and a drive to raise revenue. Agriculture Debate: As AGRA marks 20 years, fresh criticism says its “Green Revolution” approach has favoured commercial inputs and monocultures over resilient local crops. Regulation & Safety: The Pesticides Control Board moved to review Aluminium Phosphide licences after reports of misuse, tightening controls on a highly hazardous chemical. Cross-Border Trade: NBM and Akiba pushed stronger Malawi–Tanzania financial links to turn investment forums into real deals and jobs. Sports Governance: Malawi’s sports sector was told to stop waiting on government and start generating revenue, as the MNCS rolls out its 2026–2031 strategic plan. Public Safety: Eight police officers were promoted and rewarded for their role in the rescue of British national Nusrat Osman.

Budget & Recovery: Malawi’s National Assembly has approved the 2026/27 budget of K10.978tn, with agriculture and economic recovery at the centre, including K971.3bn for farming and food security and a push to narrow the deficit. Tax Pressure: With donors still absent since Cashgate, the Malawi Revenue Authority is being pushed to raise almost the whole budget, as it tightens compliance ahead of deadlines. Banking & Business Climate: The Bankers Association says inflation is easing and backs President Mutharika’s reforms, while urging government to keep improving the operating environment for growth. Forex Reality Check: Even as reserves reportedly rise, businesses and households still struggle to access foreign currency at banks, keeping pressure on imports and costs. World Bank Support: The World Bank approved $165.9m for Malawi’s INSPIRE-O social protection push, combining safety nets, climate-smart public works and job-focused support. Food & Health: Malawi targets further cuts in under-five mortality to 24 per 1,000 by 2030, while research highlights how harmful beliefs, delayed care and malnutrition keep deaths high. Agribusiness Risks: The Pesticides Control Board is reviewing Aluminium Phosphide licences after concerns of misuse, including unauthorised sales. Regional Trade: Malawi and Tanzania are stepping up cross-border trade and investment links through banking and business forums. Governance Tensions: First Vice-President Jane Ansah renews claims of being sidelined in Cabinet business, keeping political and constitutional questions in focus.

World Bank Boost: Malawi has secured a $165.9m (K287.8bn) INSPIRE-O grant to strengthen resilience to climate and economic shocks, with adaptive safety nets, climate-smart public works and jobs support for vulnerable households, women and youth. Anti-Corruption Push: VP Kembo Mohadi told SADC to treat corruption as a development blocker, urging asset recovery and tracing illicit proceeds so stolen resources return to productive use. Inflation Watch: Malawi’s headline inflation eased to 20.01% in August from 20.83% in July, driven mainly by softer food prices, while non-food costs stayed relatively sticky. Bankers Back Reforms: The Bankers Association of Malawi praised President Mutharika’s economic turnaround, pointing to falling inflation and interest rates, and pledged partnership in sectors like agriculture, mining and infrastructure. Public Safety & Crime: Blantyre Mayor Jomo Osman met the Asian community on security, street lighting, CCTV and by-law enforcement, while a high-profile British kidnapping case ended with police rescuing Nusrat Osman after a shootout that killed four suspects. Water Losses: Lilongwe Water Board reported K2.4bn losses from meter vandalism and theft between 2020 and 2025. Business & Trade Links: NBM reaffirmed commitment to Malawi–Tanzania trade via its investment in Akiba Commercial Bank, highlighting digital banking support for cross-border transactions. Regulation: Pesticides Control Board moved to review Aluminium Phosphide licences after reports of misuse and sales to unauthorised users. Football Economy: With the transfer window nearing closure, FAM and the Players Association say no transfer complaints have been lodged, as clubs continue squad strengthening.