AGP Executive Report

Regional Trade: Tanzania has signed a deal to study a railway linking Mtwara Port to Mbamba Bay, potentially opening a new freight route to Malawi and other SADC markets. Lilongwe Infrastructure: Government has launched a K7 billion road and bridge project intended to ease congestion between Areas 47, 25 and 49, which officials say is hurting business and worker productivity. Public Finance: Germany-backed tax audits helped the Malawi Revenue Authority generate more than K40 billion in additional revenue in 2025-26; Germany has also committed €68.8 million for development programmes. Mining: Lindian Resources says its Kangankunde rare earths project is on track for first concentrate in December. Meanwhile, questions remain over the unsubstantiated estimates underpinning the state-backed gold-buying plan. Economic Outlook: Economist Chifi Mhango says Malawi should measure how much value and income stays in the country, not just production, exports and investment. Fuel Supply: Shortages persist, with HRCC urging government to consider higher prices as import costs rise and the country struggles to maintain supply.

Economic Outlook: The IMF expects Malawi’s growth to slow to 2.3% in 2027, as foreign-exchange shortages limit imports of fuel, food and fertiliser. Fuel & Forex: Shortages have returned, with motorists sleeping at petrol stations; HRCC says pump prices may need to reflect rising import costs. Mining: Lindian says its Kangankunde rare-earths project is advancing towards first production in December, a potential new source of exports and jobs. Trade: The World Bank warns the trade deficit could widen as fuel, fertiliser and vehicle imports rise while tobacco-dependent export earnings weaken. Business Support: NICO subsidiaries and GIZ are investing K40 million to help agricultural MSMEs turn business training into growth. Energy: ESCOM has signed agreements for projects expected to add 125MW to the grid, including a 50MW solar plant in Mzimba.

Economic Outlook: The IMF expects Malawi’s growth to slow from 2.6% this year to 2.3% in 2027, well below the 4.5% regional forecast, as foreign-exchange shortages constrain imports of fuel, food and fertiliser. Trade and Fuel: The World Bank expects the trade deficit to widen, with fuel accounting for about a fifth of monthly imports. Fuel shortages have returned, leaving motorists queuing overnight and drivers without work. Cost of Living: World Vision estimates Malawians need 20.4 days of work to afford a basic food basket, highlighting the squeeze on households. Mining Reform: Economist Chifipa Mhango is calling for a broad overhaul of mining regulation and governance to ensure the sector benefits the country. Power Supply: ESCOM has signed agreements for projects expected to add 125MW, while a separate tender seeks battery storage for the grid.

Fuel and Forex: Motorists are sleeping at stations as Malawi’s fuel shortage deepens, leaving some drivers unable to work for weeks. The government blames a shortage of foreign currency and has launched a crackdown on hoarding and illegal sales. Power Investment: ESCOM has signed agreements for projects expected to add 125MW, while a tender for a 20MW battery storage system signals further investment in grid reliability. Mining and Exports: Lindian Resources says Kangankunde is on track for first rare-earth concentrate in the final quarter, with plant commissioning targeted for late October. Lotus Resources says one key approval remains before it can ship uranium from Kayelekera. Economic Outlook: Malawi’s prospects remain exposed to global shocks: tobacco export earnings were reported at $287 million by October, down from $526.2 million last year, amid weaker global demand.

Fuel Crisis: Malawi has launched a nationwide crackdown on fuel hoarding and black-market sales as shortages leave motorists queuing for days and push up transport costs. The squeeze reflects scarce foreign currency for imports. Power Supply: ESCOM’s agreements for a 75MW thermal plant in Salima and a 50MW solar project in Mzimba could add 125MW to the grid, easing pressure on homes and businesses once the projects are completed. Economic Outlook: The Reserve Bank warns weak global demand is weighing on Malawi, with tobacco export earnings down to $287 million by October from $526.2 million a year earlier. Development Funding: The EU plans €260 million over five years, including €143 million for agro-processing, €40 million for hydropower, €60 million for education and €17 million for food assistance. Public Finances: CAMA is urging merit-based appointments and stronger oversight of state-owned firms, as the World Bank estimates government exposure to their loans and guarantees at K188 billion. Housing: The Lands Ministry’s K8.135 trillion five-year plan targets 135,000 affordable homes by 2031, with private-sector and development-partner support expected to be crucial.

Fuel Crisis: Motorists are sleeping at petrol stations as shortages leave taxi and motorcycle operators idle. The government blames limited foreign currency, while the disruption is again hitting livelihoods and transport. Economic Resilience: A Reserve Bank economist warned that slower global growth threatens Malawi’s exports and aid flows. Tobacco earnings reached US$287.1 million by early October, down from US$526.2 million a year earlier, underscoring the need to strengthen the economy at home. Housing Investment: Malawi’s K8.1 trillion plan targets 135,000 homes by 2031, but delivery will depend on attracting private capital and support from development partners as government finances remain tight.

Fuel Crisis: Motorists are sleeping at petrol stations as shortages leave taxi and motorcycle drivers without work; the government blames foreign-currency shortages, while an IMF loan that could help stabilise the economy remains unresolved. Debt and Monetary Policy: The World Bank says Malawi’s debt restructuring has stalled amid difficult creditor coordination. Ecama is urging authorities not to ease monetary policy too soon, warning that inflation gains could be reversed. Jobs: A National Planning Commission survey finds 61.2% of adults are seeking work, while 91.5% of those employed work in the informal sector, often without secure contracts. Tobacco: The Tobacco Commission has extended grower registration to October 17, with 49,229 of an estimated 191,000 growers registered by October 12, as it pushes for better traceability and leaf quality.

Fuel Crisis: Malawi’s shortage has entered its second week, with motorists sleeping in queues and black-market prices reportedly reaching K20,000 a litre. Higher transport costs are disrupting daily life and business. Jobs and Growth: A National Planning Commission survey finds 61.2% of adults are looking for work; 91.5% of those employed work in the informal sector. Economic Policy: Ecama warns against easing monetary policy too soon, while the World Bank says Malawi’s debt talks face hurdles including weak creditor coordination. Mining Investment: Lindian Resources says Kangankunde is moving towards commissioning, with first monazite concentrate targeted by year-end and an Iluka supply route planned. Public Finance: The government says the World Bank approved redirecting $13.9 million from a water programme that includes Blantyre Water Board to help fund maize imports.

Fuel Crisis: Malawi’s second-week shortage is disrupting travel and business, lifting transport costs as motorists queue overnight; CAMA warns black-market sales are worsening the squeeze. Pension Fund: The K128bn Amaryllis Hotel takeover faces calls for cancellation, while court orders freeze K90.1bn linked to the deal, deepening scrutiny of fund governance. Trade and Investment: Dar es Salaam’s port expansion is improving its regional standing and could sharpen competition for Malawi-bound cargo, while creating new corridor investment opportunities. Industry and Minerals: A cooking-oil factory in Machinga has restarted after 15 years, offering jobs and a market for farmers. At Kangankunde, construction advances towards planned first rare-earth concentrate by year-end, with local processing seen as key to keeping more value in Malawi. Public Finance: MRA says regional technical support has strengthened tax administration and data, as pressure grows for better revenue collection and spending oversight.

Rare Earths: Lindian says Kangankunde’s ore stockpile is ahead of schedule, with plant construction continuing and first concentrate targeted by year-end. The project could attract investment, while Malawi is seeking more local processing. Fuel and Forex: Lilongwe motorists are waiting days for petrol as shortages disrupt travel and business. UTM leader Dalitso Kabambe is calling for an open debate on forex access and its impact on households and firms. Gold: State-owned Mamico plans to begin mining and processing gold next year, alongside formal buying operations aimed at curbing smuggling and boosting forex earnings. Agriculture: Fertiliser stocks stand at about 148,000 tonnes against annual needs of up to 475,000 tonnes, raising concern ahead of planting. The Anti-Corruption Bureau has also halted ADMARC’s proposed K2.97 billion tarpaulin deal pending scrutiny. Economic Outlook: Malawi’s IMF talks and currency policy remain under close debate as businesses face worsening operating conditions and rising costs.

Fuel Crunch: Lilongwe motorists are queuing for up to three days, with some sleeping in their cars. The shortage is disrupting commutes, deliveries and customer traffic as the crisis enters its second week. Gold and Forex: Mamico plans to start buying gold at three centres, backed by initial financing from NBS and FDH banks. It still needs Reserve Bank approval and an offtake agreement; the state company says formal buying could curb smuggling and keep more export earnings in Malawi. Farm Inputs: Fertiliser stocks stand at about 148,000 tonnes against annual needs of up to 475,000 tonnes, leaving a deficit of more than 300,000 tonnes. Malawi has also committed US$1 million to a seed investment plan, but AGRA warns that strong policies are not translating into adequate supply for farmers. Public Procurement: The ACB has stopped ADMARC’s proposed K2.97 billion purchase of 100 tarpaulins pending scrutiny, amid questions over the reported K29.67 million cost per unit. Mining Investment: Rare-earth extraction has begun at Kangankunde, with the government seeking more local processing to boost revenue and attract investment.

Fuel and Forex: Fuel shortages have left motorists queuing for days, disrupted travel and pushed up transport costs, adding pressure on businesses already struggling to secure foreign exchange. Farm Inputs: Malawi faces a fertiliser shortfall of more than 300,000 tonnes: stocks stand at about 148,000 tonnes against annual needs of up to 475,000, while a bag of urea has climbed to K210,000. Gold Trade: State-owned Mamico says it is ready to buy gold through formal trading centres but needs K85 billion to start and K300 billion a year; a formal market could curb smuggling and bring more forex into the economy. Mining Investment: Rare-earth extraction has begun at Kangankunde, with the government urging local processing to capture more value. Economic Outlook: IMF talks have advanced, but forex and energy constraints continue to weigh on firms. Government says it will not devalue the kwacha, while industry leaders warn that exchange-rate pressures need addressing.

Gold Trade: Malawi’s planned gold trading centres could help retain more mineral value at home. MAMICO says three centres are ready, but it needs K85 billion to start buying and K300 billion annually; operations await an RBM off-take agreement. A survey identified more than 100 mining sites in 26 districts. Public Finances: The High Court has frozen K90.125 billion in accounts linked to the Amaryllis Hotel purchase while legal proceedings continue. Power Investment: ESCOM signed connection agreements for a 50MW solar plant in Mzimba and a 75MW thermal project in Salima, potential additions to a grid strained by blackouts. Business Conditions: Industry leaders say forex shortages, unreliable power and fuel scarcity are eroding recent inflation gains and worsening the operating environment.

Business Pressures: Industry leaders say forex shortages, unreliable power and fuel scarcity worsened Malawi’s business climate in the third quarter, eroding gains from easing inflation. MCCCI is urging progress on an IMF lending programme and exchange-rate reforms. Fuel Crunch: Shortages have entered a second week, disrupting transport and businesses; CAMA says black-market prices have reached K20,000 a litre as NOCMA seeks bids for 440,000 tonnes of fuel. Gold & Forex: Malawi loses an estimated $100 million a year to gold smuggling, says state miner Mamico, which plans trading centres to buy directly from small-scale miners and channel gold to the Reserve Bank. Power Investment: ESCOM signed connection deals for a 50MW solar plant in Mzimba and a 75MW thermal project in Salima, adding to efforts to ease power shortages that constrain industry. Public Accountability: The Anti-Corruption Bureau has blocked ADMARC’s proposed K3 billion contract for 100 tarpaulins while it investigates suspected corruption; the move does not establish wrongdoing.

Public Procurement: The Anti-Corruption Bureau has blocked ADMARC’s proposed K3 billion contract for 100 tarpaulins while it investigates suspected corruption; the move is not a finding of wrongdoing. Separately, the government says the World Bank approved a US$13.9 million reallocation to buy maize from Zambia, with funds transferred directly to Zambia. Fuel Crisis: Shortages have entered a second week, disrupting transport and businesses. CAMA says black-market fuel is selling for K15,000–K20,000 a litre, while NOCMA seeks bids for 440,000 tonnes of fuel. IMF and Accountability: Economist James Kadyampakeni has urged the IMF to make measurable anti-corruption measures central to any support for Malawi. Government says kwacha devaluation is not part of IMF talks, and the Fund has cited progress towards a possible new lending programme. Foreign Exchange: Banks bought US$45.6 million from customers in August, down 48.5% from June, while selling more than they purchased—suggesting improved headline forex conditions have yet to ensure reliable supply to businesses. Mining: Kayelekera produced 332,000 pounds of uranium in its first year, below its planned ramp-up, citing plant and sulphuric-acid supply problems; the operator says performance is improving.

Kwacha and IMF: Government says devaluation is not part of negotiations with the IMF, whose recent mission noted progress towards policies for a possible new lending programme. Credit Rating: Economist Chifipa Mhango says an active sovereign rating could improve Malawi’s visibility to investors and borrowing conditions; the country’s last Fitch rating expired in 2007. Business Pressures: Fuel scarcity is raising transport costs and disrupting event planning, while businesses in Phalombe say weeks without power are hurting trade and forcing some to rely on costly generators. Mining: Kayelekera produced 332,000 pounds of uranium in its first year, below its ramp-up target, after plant and sulphuric acid supply problems; the operator says performance is improving. Road Funding: Road levy arrears have fallen to about K173 billion, but delayed remittances have weakened maintenance funding and left contractors waiting for payment.